Evaluating Pitchers

One of the first things we at MLB Daily Picks do when trying to evaluate the outcome of the baseball game is to check starting pitchers for both teams (be careful not to make a mistake of wagering on a game solely on the starting pitcher). Starting pitchers are most responsible for the way the game starts and how it might end. Most of the teams in MLB have 5 man starting rotation. This means that each starting pitcher will have at least 4 days of rest between the games he starts.

On average starting pitchers pitch for 5 or 6 innings but the number of innings pitched depends, of course, on pitchers performance. If he starts the game really bad, allowing many hits, runs and walks he can be taken out of the game after just 1 or 2 innings. If starting pitcher is not able to last at least 5 innings on the long run then the chances are he will be demoted to the bullpen.

If a starting pitcher is able to go all 9 innings then he had thrown a “complete game”. If he throws a complete game without allowing a run then he had thrown a “shutout game” and if he throws a complete game without allowing a hit then he had thrown a “no-hitter”.

Sometimes starting pitchers are taken out of the game only because of high pitch count. Usually pitch count at which starting pitchers are taken out of the game is around 100.

In order to qualify for a win starting pitcher must throw at least 5 innings and at the moment he leaves the game his team must be leading. If his team was leading, but ends up losing the game or his team was behind when he leaves, but ends up winning the game starting pitcher gets a no decision.

If a starting pitcher left the game while his team was behind or if he allowed runners on the base that will score a leading run for the opposing team after starting pitcher left the game he receives a loss.

If a starting pitcher lasts at least 6 innings and has allowed 3 or less runs then he is said to have a “quality start”, regardless of the outcome of the game.

Starting pitchers usually must have at least 3 effective pitches: a fastball, a breaking pitch and a change-up.

It is important that the starting pitchers lasts as long as they can because in that way the use of bullpen pitchers is reduced. While starting pitchers have at least 4 days of rest, bullpen pitchers might be pitching every day. Having an overused bullpen significantly reduces chances of winning the match.

After starting pitchers leave the game, pitchers from bullpen take over until the end of the game. They are also called relievers.

Relief pitchers are divided into set-up relief pitchers, middle relief pitchers, long relievers, left-handed specialists and closers.

Set-up relief pitchers – they are pitchers who pitch before the closer. They usually pitch in 7th and 8th innings. Teams always have a right-handed and a left-handed setup pitchers in their bullpens.

Middle relief pitchers – they are pitchers who usually pitch in 6th or 7th innings or in extra innings. Their main role is to pitch for several innings in order to protect more valued relief pitchers from overuse. If the game is not close they might be pitching till the end of the game.

Long relievers – they enter the game early, after the starting pitcher was replaced because of poor performance, injury or ejection. Their main goal is to pitch efficiently long enough to save other bullpen pitchers from having to pitch.

Left-handed specialists – they are left-handed pitchers who are specialized in pitching to left-handed batters. They usually pitch to only one batter.

Closers – they are pitchers that pitch in the 9th inning (rarely they might start pitching in the 8th) and their duty is to get the final outs in the game. Usually they enter the game when their team is leading by 3 runs or less and if their team wins they earn the save.

Let me repeat once more that studying starting (and bullpen) pitchers is not enough to evaluate the outcome of the game. In my experience this represents between 50–60% of work needed to be done.

After explaining how pitcher can be awarded a win, a loss or a no decision let me tell you that win-loss ratio is not enough to evaluate a pitcher. Let’s take a look at following example. We have a pitcher that went 9 innings (a complete game) and he allowed 1 hit and 1 run, but his team didn’t score any runs and therefore they lose 1-0. Pitcher also receives a loss, but in fact ha had a stellar performance. Many different pitching stats are used in baseball. I will write about a few I find most important.

ERA – Earned Run Average

Earned Run Average (ERA) is a number that shows us how much runs would pitcher allow if he was pitching for 9 innings. ERA is calculated in following manner:

ERA = 9 * EarnedRunsAllowed / InningsPitched

ERA can be interpreted in the following way:

ERA	Interpretation
< 2.00	Amazing and very, very rare
2.00 – 3.00	Excellent, only a few of the best pitchers have ERA in this range
3.00 – 4.00	Better then average
4.00 – 5.00	Average
5.00 – 6.00	Worse then average
> 6.00	Pitcher with ERA this high will be demoted to bullpen or even minor league

Of course, ERA is just one of the stats and taking it by itself can be misleading. ERA for American and National League pitchers can not be exactly compared. Every 9th hitter that National League pitcher faces is actually a pitcher and they are usually not very good batters, so as a result National League pitcher can score an easy out. American League pitchers don’t have such a convenience and therefore their ERA can be slightly higher then ERA of National League pitchers.

Also, ERA between starting and relief pitchers can not be compared. Let’s take a look at relief pitcher that enters the game while there are already 2 runners on bases and his team is leading by 1 run. He then gives up a hit and 2 runners score. He is not charged with those runs, because previous pitcher(s) allowed them on bases. If he leaves the game at that moment his ERA would be 0.00, but he is the one responsible for surrendering the lead. In addition to that, relief pitchers know that they will be throwing to only a few batters and they can use maximum strength for each pitch, while starting pitchers need to calculate because they might be going for 6 or 7 or more innings. This fact also keeps relievers ERA low.

ERA is one of the most commonly used pitching stats and majority of inexperienced baseball handicappers rely solely on it when evaluating pitchers. I find only career ERA important. Current seasons ERA or ERA for just a few games in my opinion is not really relevant, because the sample size is too small and one really good or one really bad outing can mess the numbers big time.

After I’ve explained you why win-loss ratio and ERA are not crucial in evaluating pitchers let me now present you with pitching stats that I find really important:

Innings pitched per start

I find this stat one of the most important. It’s calculated by dividing total number of innings pitched with number of starts. Pitcher with the number close to 7 is excellent and dominant pitcher and when he leaves the game best set-up man and closer can take over and team can have constant quality pitching throughout the game.

Those around 6 are pretty much average, pitchers between  5.5 and 6 are more or less bad and those with 5.5 or less are going to be dropped from the rotation and if you spot one of them go against them while they are not dropped.

If you are betting on totals then when you spot a matchup with two pitchers with number close to 7 go for under and if you matchup with two pitchers around 6 or less go for over.

During April look for the last years stats and after a month or so start using fresh stats.

Strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9IP, K/9 or SO/9)

This stat is calculated by multiplying number of strikeouts by 9 and then dividing it by number of innings pitched. Best of the best pitchers have this number just above 10.0 and average is between 6 and 7. Guys with higher numbers are better pitchers and they strike out more batters they face. If we have 2 pitchers with same ERA, but one has significantly higher K/9 then he is better pitcher.

WHIP – Walks plus Hits allowed per Inning Pitched

This stat tells us the number of base runners a pitcher has allowed per inning pitched. It’s calculated in following manner:

WHIP = (BB + H) / IP

Pitchers that are able to keep batters of base win games, those who don’t lose games, simple as that. Pitchers with 1.2 or lower WHIP are very good and they are good investment, those with WHIP 1.5 and higher are ones to avoid or bet against.

In my opinion Innings pitched per start, K/9 and WHIP are 3 most important stats for evaluating pitcher and they are totally independent of run support pitcher gets from their team.

There are also 2 more stats that might be important in some cases:

Pitch Count

Managers usually limit pitch count of their pitchers to hundred or so, but sometimes pitchers can throw 115 or 120 or even more pitches. In their next start they might be vulnerable. Look for those cases, check other starts and possibly go against them.

Home/Road Split

Some pitchers tend to have better results at home and some better at road. Good pitcher might be doing bad at road and then betting against their team might be a good value bet.

All the best

Mr. Stretch