Betting on MLB totals

Besides betting on winners of baseball games we at MLB Daily Picks like betting on totals, but we always wait till June and only then we start putting some serious money into it. The reason is that by June just enough of fresh, reliable stats are available. Till then most of the starting pitchers have had at least 10 starts and all the hitters have had a lot of at bats which makes their stats much more reliable compared to season start when we can only use last years stats or current years stats which are based on a small sample.

Most of the bookies have lower limits for betting baseball totals then on betting sides and this is a clear indication that betting baseball totals is easier then betting on winners.

Totals posted on most of the bookies sites are between 7.5 and 9.5. The Game must go the full 9 innings or 8 1/2 innings with the home team leading in order to be considered action.

There are a few important factors to take care of when deciding if the bet will be over or under:

Pitching stats

I’ve talked in detail about pitching in Evaluating Pitchers article. As I said there never use ERA to decide the winner of the game or if the game will go over or under, or even better: never use only ERA to make your decision. Sometimes both starting pitchers will have high ERA (5.00 or higher) and if the both teams are high scoring teams and/or teams that allow a lot of runs against then this game is an obvious candidate for over. ERA is not a good stat to base your decision because it only covers earned runs. Unearned runs also count in totals so we need something else.

More reliable pitching stat to use is WHIP. If both pitchers have low WHIP (around 1.00) game is a candidate for under and if both of them have high WHIP then the game could go over.

It’s not enough to just consider starting pitchers. Bullpen pitchers stats also need to be taken care of. If teams closer is not likely to pitch on a given day (because he had pitched for 3 days in a row or he has pitched 2 or more innings the night before) then you should think twice before betting under on such a game. If you feel starting pitcher will not last long then it’s important to know the stats of middle relievers. If they are bad then never bet under on such a game.

For all pitchers it’s important to know their day/night and home /away stats, because in those stats one can find a good reason to bet under or over.

Hitting stats

For me the most important stat in this section are runs scored and runs allowed. The teams which score a lot and allow a lot of runs (for example Arizona this season) are good candidates for over when their opponents are also high scoring teams and teams that don’t score a lot of runs and don’t allow many (San Diego this season) are good candidates for under when they play a team with a similar statistics. But, pay attention, that it takes two for game to go under or over. Statistics show that in most times losing team needs to score at least 2 runs if the game is going to go over. So, if we have a game between Arizona and San Diego and if I was to make an under/over decision I would chose under.

One other important thing to know is that the baseball is one of the streakiest sports around. Sometimes low scoring teams have a streak of overs and sometimes high scoring teams go under for number of games. Philadelphia is a good example of the latter. They are team full of good hitters, but lately they just can’t score and their games go under. Be aware of those streaks and take advantage of them.

Also pay attention to the lineups. If a one or two good hitters from high scoring team will not be in the lineup that could be a good reason to stay away from over bet.

Umpire stats

Different umpires have different strike zones. Some of them often call strikes and some of them don’t. Some have tight strike zones, which as a result will have more hitters on bases in that game and consequently more runs scored. It’s important to know the plate umpire for the game and check his under/over, runs per game and strikes stats. Best place to find it is at Covers (http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/statistics/2010/umpireoustatistics_mlb_regular.html&t=0).

Don’t base your under/over decision solely on umpires. I only use it to confirm my decision.

Ballpark stats

Unlike in NBA, NFL and NHL baseball ballparks don’t have standard field dimensions. They vary from ballpark to ballpark. Some of the ballparks are „pitcher friendly“ and not many runs are scored there (Petco Park – San Diego, for example) and some are „hitter friendly“ and a lot of runs and home runs are scored there (Coors Field – Colorado). On ESPN site you can find MLB Park Factor list (http://scorecenter.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor). Park factor compares the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road. Rate above 1.000 favors overs and rate bellow 1.000 favors unders. Only take ballpark factor in the consideration when the weather is fine (no strong winds). Ballpark factor shouldn’t be a decisive factor when basing your bet, just something that will confirm or deny your decision.

Weather

If the predicted weather for the game is bad that can have a influence on all above mentioned factors and I usually stay away of those games. Some handicappers put more weight into weather looking for strong winds and their direction. If the winds are going to blow in outfield direction this means more fly balls will end up being home runs (over) and and if its’ blowing in the opposite directions potential home run would be just a fly ball (under). But, since baseball games lasts approximately 3 hours there are no guarantees that the strong winds will constantly blow in the same direction and that is why bad weather games are not bet for me.

To summarize. Most important thing is to know how both teams are performing offensively and defensively. As I said before it takes two to go over or stay under. In most of the cases game is going to go over only if both teams contribute. Therefore, avoid over bets with really hot starting pitcher even if both teams are high scoring teams and even if posted total is low. Only go for overs in matchups with two high scoring teams when both starting pitchers are not very good. In all other cases consider under, but before betting on it check all other stats.

All the best

Mr. Stretch